Griz, I'll do some figuring on how to determine if a round is truly a statistical draw. You're right, eventually it should be possible to say that something really is a draw, that the bots are indistinguishable from truely 50/50.
well see shvarz's and my post above ...
and more below.
Also, League matches are unbiased, but the way in which league matches are organized and interpreted may not be. But that's really a different issue, isn't it
well yes ...
but it can, and does, indeed affect the ranking ...
certainly when doing a league rerun or initial setup ...
and it can still stop a bot from advancing due to just one other bot having his number.
we don't need to do it that way.
however, I also must admit ... so what?
what are we really using these rankings to determine anyway?
it has little to do with DB as a sim ...
and more to do with Bot Designing.
shvarz, I noticed after doing all this work what you mention. This is sort of fudging the proper way of doing things. The problem is that running it in a more scientific manner would probably require more rounds than we're willing to do.
well, it may actually reduce them quite a bit.
consider:
we can still go with it set up as is ...
do an initial 5 rounds ... I mean most matches are pretty lopsided ...
one bot winning all 5 ... so no problem there.
and for those matches that need to be extended to determine
a winner, we can leave that alone as well ...
but as I have been trying to suggest all along ...
we might have to put a cap max number of rounds.
just as an example ... call it 40 rounds. with a Z of two ...
a bot would have to win 27 of the 40 rounds to be called
a winner with 95% confidence, yes? or 24 with a Z of one.
so the rounds do get extended, just as they do now ...
but upon reaching 40 rounds ... stop. halt. enough.
either call it a draw or give it to the dude with the
most rounds won, realizing our confidence is being
compromised somewhat ...
[it doesn't mean we are wrong] ... and move on.
that would eliminate all these ridiculously long matches ...
and I believe, actually reduce the time required to run
a league.
I'm open to suggestions for removing bias where possible.
great
now ...
out of all this ...
playing around with leagues and seeing what
makes them tick ...
I've learned a lot ...
and that's what it's all about anyway ...
imo, ime.